A Free Nation Deep in Debt: The Financial Roots of Democracy

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Macdonald's argument starts with the fiscal stress associated with having to raise huge amount of funds in preparation for warfare. In such situation, raising taxes is impractical. Often tax rates would have had to double or treble to raise adequate funds to finance wars throughout history. A government can?t do that without causing a revolution. Often what states and government did before the advent of well developed public bond markets was to mine their grounds (or grounds of conquered territories) for mineral riches (gold and silver). The states would then hoard these gold reserves as funds available for a rainy day (war). But, as Macdonald points out this treasure hoarding was most inefficient from an economic standpoint.

Public debt markets became a much preferred alternative to treasure hoarding for financing wars. This was true for several reasons. Treasure hoarding represented a huge amount of wasted capital not reinvested in the economy where it could have generated rapidly rising living standards for society at large. Bond financing (public debt) was so much more flexible a tool for war financing than an ongoing tasking treasure hoarding mechanism.

Comparing two countries, one being a bond borrower, the other a treasure hoarder, one could readily observe that the bond borrower economy would grow much faster, and that it would have an easier time to finance wars when and as needed. Typically, you run out of gold reserve faster than you run out of a state's borrowing capacity.

But, for a public debt market to thrive you need democratic institutions. In democracies, the motivation of the government and its citizen are aligned. This facilitates a trust between the creditors (citizens) and the borrower (the government). As a result, democratic governments can borrow more and at a lower interest costs then other governments. In other words, the creditors of a democratic government assess a lower credit and counterparty risk to a democratic government, and therefore demand a lower risk premium (lower interest rates). This is Macdonald's main argument. Therefore, he concludes that the pressure to create public credit markets to finance wars was an impetus to create public debt markets and in turn to develop democratic institutions.

Macdonald's theory is so current. Today, it is self evident that the countries who have the most transparent disclosure, integer accounting system, accountable governance associated with democracies can borrow at a substantially lower cost than others.

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