Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
Author: Peter L. Bernstein
List Price: $19.95
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ISBN: 0471295639
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons (31 August, 1998)
Sales Rank: 947
Average Customer Rating: 4.01 out of 5
Customer Reviews
Rating: 4 out of 5
Long on history, but short on risk management strategy
The title of my review is aimed at warning those expecting to find a risk management manual in this book that they will be disappointed. So will those who expect to find the links between the evolution modern statistics and acturial science to the rise of insurance markets and risk management instruments which have proliferated in this century. Many other books quite ably cover these interesting topics.Instead, the author provides a broad sweeping history of how modern statistics evolved and which answers some questions of why it took so long for modern risk management institutions to emerge. Ancient Greeks, among others, who appeared to be within easy reach of developing statisical theory, nonetheless relegated their fate to the whims of gods, rather than making them amenable to analysis with probabilities and actuarial tables. Tracing modern risk management from the time of Jacob Bernoulli's attempt to develop probabilities from sample data, the author also shows how a knowledge of probabilities can ultimately generate value. QUOTE Reality is a series of conneceted events, each dependent on another, radically diffeent form games of chance in which the outcome of any single throw has zero influence on the outcome of the next throw UNQUOTE The book closes with risk management innovations that followed the emergence of financial volatlity in the 1970s.
Ultimately, this book may be of less interest to statisticians and investment professionals, other than those who have a curious interest in how today's highly developed set of instruments, institutions, and policies around risk came about from the foundations provided in statistical theory.
Rating: 5 out of 5
No Risk here, The Odds areYou'll love it.
i'm very much a novice in the study of risk and probabilities; however, I've been lucky enough to come across some excellent business oriented books - but in actuality and thankfully far more philosophical than financial - (Fooled by Randomness for instance) lately that have done a masterful job of presenting this seemingly dry subject in a very fascinating way. Bernstein has probably written the quintessential historical study on Risk and Probability with this volume. It is filled with interesting details of the human qualities and quirks of the mathematicians and philosophers that investigated the problems of probablity and explains the mathematics involved with lucidity and wit. The book follows a chronological approach; however, it's also thematic to show the evolution of the subject of risk management and the influence of other sciences on it - such as evolution. Those that refuse to accept the idea that markets remain unpredictable despite the development of modern risk control mechanisms like derivatives, computer modelling, and modern financial instruments will find this book frustrating. Those who want a wquick fix investment solutions guide will be even angrier and will nort find anything useful here. This book belongs in the philosophy of science and History of Ideas sections far more than the business dept. Nonetheless, the serious and thoughtful investor is advised to read this book carefully. as someone who's lost in the stock markets himself the Bernstein's book can reduce the sting of the loss and impart some well needed wisdom. I no longer invest but I loved this book all the same.
Rating: 4 out of 5
Good outline of the history of risk
"Against the Gods" is a book outlining the history of risk. The book provides an outline of all the key players and their contribution to risk theory and management. Chronologically, the book begins in ancient times and stretches all the way to the present, where Bernstein delves into the works of modern day risk luminaries. The book is well written and the style is engaging, with the author always managing to find a way to keep the reader entertained as well as informed.The book does not pretend to be a "how to" guide for risk management, nor should readers treat it as such. Although the book does discuss modern risk management tools such as derivatives, it is devoid of complex technical analysis and its treatment of such devices is limited to outlining their place in the history of risk. Those looking for technical trading analysis should seek elsewhere.
One of the key questions a potential reader of this book should be asking is "Does this book have any practical applications with regards to modern day risk management?" Whilst as mentioned above the book is not a step by step guide, I firmly believe the book is useful insofar as it enables the reader to avoid the pitfalls of the past. For example, capital markets are continually surprising those who hold an unwavering belief in "regression to the mean". The books provides an explanation of what this theory states, how it has been applied and where overzealous disciples have misused this principle in the past. Overall I would recommend this book as an informative and enjoyable read.
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