Part I (135 pp.) focuses on why he believes a stock market crash will occur in the near term, as well why deflation and economic depression are high probability scenarios. Although deflation and depression are rare occurrences, Prechter believes that they are at the brink. His goal is writing the book is to provide insight into defining both events and make you believe that they can happen, and eventually make you believe that they are likely to happen.
Prechter compares the period 1942-1966 (called Wave III) with the economic expansion of 1974-2000 (Wave V). He points out that the most recent period had much weaker economic fundamentals and performance than the prior period, although by stock market standards Wave V had an increase of 1930% on the DJIA compared to 971% during Wave III. In his analysis he provides comprehensive statistics on GDP, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Unemployment rate, household's liquid assets, federal and consumer debt, prime rate, federal budget deficit, personal savings among others. Prechter then defines depression and its relationship to the stock market. One of his key observations is that 'major stock market declines lead directly to depressions'.
Prechter depicts the five waves evident in the stock market using four charts. He points out that the five-wave pattern occurs even taking into account major news events such as Hitler's rise to power and the end of the Vietnam war. Prechter provides four signs of a market top and explains the Elliott Wave characteristics of each of the five waves.
Prechter presents his case for the existing stock market precarious situation (as of March 2002) by covering Wave V in great detail. He spends considerable time examining the fifth wave from 1974 to 2000 compared to previous waves. The case for the historically high stock evaluation is made by focusing on the low dividend yield, outrageously high book value, and high P/E ratio. Prechter then covers how psychology plays a major role in a stock market advance and decline. He reviews the psychology of he economists, brokerage strategists, money managers, public, and the media.
Prechter believes that the upcoming bear market will be the most devastating since the great depression and perhaps since 1720-1784. If this occurs, he indicates that the U.S. will experience another depression. He forecasts that the DJI will plummet to 777, the August 1982 low, if that average follows the pattern of the prior manias (e.g., Nikkei; DJI 1929-32; Gouda tulip bulbs (1634-1722); and the South Sea Company (1719-1722)). Lastly, he makes the case for deflation, and discusses the Fed and banking system.
Book Two provided Prechter's advice for protecting yourself and profiting from the upcoming depression. His recommendations include:
1. Have safety of principal by being in cash or high-quality short-term U.S. Government treasuries (T-bills) or money market mutual funds that invest in these types of instruments.
2. Sell your home (if you have a large mortgage) and rent instead.
3. Find a safe bank (using Weiss Ratings, Inc., for example) and keep your money there.
4. Do not own or invest in stocks, options or futures.
5. Consider buying inverse mutual funds (such as Rydex Tempest that double short the S&P 500) and Rydex Venture (double short NASDAQ 100). ProFunds also offers bear funds. To invest in any of these funds, Prechter cautions that you must be a short-term timer to be successful.
6. Buy physical gold and silver metals.
7. Cash out your whole life insurance policies and convert to term insurance from the safest firms (based on Weiss Ratings, Inc., for example)
Prechter provides a very sobering view of the future that few individuals will heed because of its negative and extreme consequences. But if this book makes you think about the safety of your financial nest eggs, retirement funds, insurance policies, etc; then at least you can decide to take some steps to protect yourself. If the stock market can manage to rally 20-40% from the lows of July 2002, then perhaps you should consider cashing in your remaining equity and mutual funds positions before the 'real' bear market takes hold as Prechter envisions. I know I will be doing that and then using my charts and technical indicators to tell me when to get back in. It's shame that Prechter did not publish this book in March 2000 when the market was at its peak. He would have saved most investors, who believed his work, a great deal of money if they had followed his recommendations.
Whether you agree with Prechter's view of the world, you will certainly agree with this quote:
'To be successful in life, or at least learn something along the way, you have to think for yourself.'
But regarding this book, Prector makes more powerful "fundamental" arguments than I have ever seen him make. You don't have to be an Elliotician or technician to understand and appreciate these arguments. You don't really need to know/learn the Elliott Wave Theory to get a LOT out of this book. He provides some really good answers to the "what do I do with..." questions, and provides many references to research for different investments, products, and services.
Don't approach it as a "get rich quick" book and you won't be disappointed. Its also not an advanced or detailed book on the theory (but he makes plenty of references to those books in this one for those who want to learn more).
For those that really understand Elliott but have never had much to give to the friends and family that they could ever hope to understand, this is the book for them (followed by "Precter's Perspective," but "Conquer..." is much better and current).I think he's already been proven to be right, but it certainly won't be much longer before we know for sure.