But, it is a good book, if you enjoy reading the work of a futurist.
For "Org Change" take a look at Kotter, Collins, Beitler, Black & Gregersen, etc.
In case you read Schwartz's previous work and wonder whether he still believes in "The Long Boom", the answer is an undeniable and unashamed *yes!* Productivity and accelerating technological advances will return the economy to a long-term path of strong growth. This doesn't mean that Schwartz paints a pastel portrait of the future. We can expect a cleaner environment and opportunities in abundance, but must also anticipate massive migrations of people, declining populations in large parts of the Western world, a confusing and unruly international situation, global climate crises, plagues, and possibly an asteroid strike. Study this book, challenge Schwartz's thinking, and prepare yourself and your business for a wild ride ahead.
Schwartz believes that his forecasts and scenarios will stand up to the test of future history better than those of most prognosticators. The reason is that, in the grand tradition of "predetermined elements" in scenario planning, he is drawing out the implications of events that have already happened. Many of the big surprises are, in fact, inevitable. So why are we continually caught off guard? Schwartz pins the blame on our tendency as decision makers to react to the drivers of change either with denial or defensiveness. Neither kind of response is effective and both are "fundamentally irresponsible" as Schwartz puts it. In this book, he aims to help us understand the kinds of inevitable surprises lying ahead, and to suggest steps that organizations can take to thrive.
In the author's view, humanity faces greater challenges now than ever before. At the same time we have greater capabilities than ever before. Our greatest challenge is "to master our own accelerating power, without being swept away by it." Along with a few other well-grounded futurists, Schwartz has laid down a challenge along with weapons for tackling the future. Inevitably, most readers will read this book and find it both informative and engaging but few will incorporate the resulting ideas for action into their plans. When it comes to these large-scale shifts, *doing* has always been disadvantaged compared to *denial* and *defensiveness*. Being proven wrong about this would be a surprise but, alas, not an inevitable surprise.
The way the author can say pretty well what will happen based on current evidence is an amazing tool that should only grow in importance, yet it does not take away the free will to change.
Makes you appreciate the world will be even more amazing in the future.