The collection of authors recounts the steps vital to a good scenario: identify key current forces affecting the organization, involve all levels of management (so they "own" the scenario results), assure the scenarios are linked to crucial decision processes, do not slip into trying to forecast the "most likely" future, tell a story, link the scenario elements logically (perhaps graphically) together. Chapter 4 is especially good at describing how to create matrices of outcomes with sliding scales of driving forces such as the price of gas or protectionist versus open markets. Both "future forward" (present day forward, or inductive) and "future backward" (working from the future backwards, deductive) scenario types are explored, as are computer-assisted methods.
Every conceivable element that could be factored into a scenario is covered and categorized in the book, including political trends, natural disasters, pricing and cultural trends, as well as the classic SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats). If there is one fault to the book, it is that the case studies could be more poignant - instead of distinct organizations with palpable products and threats, these tend to be generic (e.g., a "high tech" company producing "electronics"); this exsanguination of content leads to some bland examples and occasional lapses into platitudes (e.g., "leave enough time for evaluation"). In contrast, another scenario book, The Sixth Sense, by van der Heijden, glows with colorful case studies. When I created and played in scenarios at RAND, we found that adding color and story helped the process immeasurably: we created posters and put them on the wall, we got into character like actors do, we generated future headlines and stories - not just generically, but for a specific date and paper (the Washington Post was a favorite) - to make the process seem more relevant and the results more richly detailed. The book could also have more precise examples of insights and corporate changes that resulted from scenarios as evidence for their worth - this text is clearly meant for the already converted. That said, the very extent and thoroughness of the material, its coverage of elements often left out of other texts, and its provision of checklists for novice scenario builders, make it a must-read. The use of scenarios has a long track record of success, even in decades past when the rate of change and pace of market forces was more leisurely. In this day and age, when markets can evolve every six months, the use of scenarios to enable an organization to be proactive rather than reactive is more important than ever, and this text is one of the most exhaustive that exists on this important topic.
The smart leader uses scenarios as an important tool in the executive toolkit. Just as good decision-making is not done in a vacuum, but rather is done in the light of a good deal of research and information gathering, so even scenario planning is prefaced by homework, preparation. Elements of history, traditions, branding, decision-making methodology, personnel, key decision factors and key external forces are all pieces of the background necessary for scenario planning. Scenario Learning is not just one more thing one must do because some higher up says it must be done. It is not just a task. All decision-making of any magnitude needs to cease until the scenario planning sheds light on the decision. This process is the best of strategic planning and should not be set aside while the company chooses its strategy. "Scenarios are most valuable when they are understood to be movies of an evolving story, not a snapshot of a specific point in time" (p. 12).
Several types of scenarios are offered. Scenario learning, in the context of Systems Thinking, is a powerful tool for moving into a changed reality. Systems thinking is the engine of dynamic scenario planning. In any system it must be understood that each element in a system acts or reacts to every other element in the system (elements such as events, patterns of behavior and contextual structure). Seeing the system rather than individual elements when making a decision means making decisions with a greater possibility of successful growth.
"Scenario Learning is a search for an understanding of how the future could change, and how an organization could thrive by adapting to a number of particular changed circumstances." Scenario learning identifies what the indicators of change are, and what decisions and actions must be taken today to be ready to survive and win tomorrow and in the years to come" (p. xi). What follows in the book does indeed make this clear.