¡®The Art of the Long View¡¯ by Peter Schwartz is a book about planning our future. Different to the past, which we already knew, and the present, which is going on, it is impossible to tell what the future will be. However, people, companies, cities, and states, as well as the world like to know about their future. Thus, we could plan the future with a forecasting skill, scenario writing.
Schwartz suggests a long view for the future planning. He argues that scenarios are tools for helping us to take a long view in a great uncertainty rather than simply predicting the future. Admitting the uncertainty of scenario, the author insists that it is possible for us to prepare for the future.
The purpose of this book is giving a guideline to build scenarios. The author explains uncovering decisions, information hunting and gathering, creating scenario building blocks, composing plots, and writing scenarios. Moreover, he suggests the eight steps of developing scenarios (Step 1. Identify focal issue or decision, 2. Key forces in the local environment, 3. Driving forces, 4. Rank by importance and uncertainty, 5. Selecting scenario logics, 6. Fleshing out the scenarios, 7. Implications, 8. Selection of leading indicators and signposts) which are helpful for scenario writers.
I agree with the author in terms of that scenarios are tools for long view. Although scenarios have much of uncertainty, they are needed for planning. It is better to have plans for people and organizations even the results are different to plans. With social, economic, political, and technological points of views, scenarios could be sufficient alternative future.
The general principles of scenario planning are neatly summarized in the appendix, "Steps to Developing Scenarios." They compose of: Step One: identify the focal issue or decision; Step Two: list the key Micro-Factors relevant to that issue or decision; Step Three: list the key Macro-Driving Forces; Step Four: cross-rank Factors and Forces in terms of importance and uncertainty; Step Five: select Scenario Logic; Step Six: flesh out Scenarios; Step Seven: identify Probable Implications; and Step Eight: select Leading Indicators and Signposts. However, the order of the steps may be muddled in some cases.
For me, as a former employee of Shell in Cambodia, it is an eye-opening reading. I wish I had read this book before I started to develop the promotion plan for Shell Cambodia. The great pleasure of adopting a constant futurist's perspective on things is that it forces you to think of different possible ways things may happen and have at hand the answers to the "what if...?" questions either plausible or implausible. Then comes a shift in the mindset that leads to the change in behavior in managing organization, let it be global corporation like Royal Dutch Shell or AT&T and small family businesses. It is an excellent read if you want to liberate your insights from your existing "mental map".