The Bear Book : Survive and Profit in Ferocious Markets

Author: John Rothchild
List Price: $24.95
Our Price: Click to see the latest and low price
ISBN: 0471197181
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons (20 March, 1998)
Sales Rank: 24,447
Average Customer Rating: 3.92 out of 5

Customer Reviews

Rating: 5 out of 5
I learned a lot and loved it. I read it cover to cover!
I am a management accountant but still needed the global view of markets that this book eloquently describes. I began investing in 1992 and never paid attention to the market because I WASN'T IN IT. I have never seen a bear market up close, John really gave me a good look and a readable look. Now, I can study the markets with a broader understanding. Excellent book for me.


Rating: 4 out of 5
Every individual investor needs to read this book
John Rothchild has done a great job of outlining and explaining what bear markets are, what leads to them, what to expect in bear markets, and when to expect them, and what to do to survive and profit when faced with a bear.

Rothchild explains under what circumstances the mantra of "buy and hold" would work and when it doesn't work. He also destroys another present-day myth that earnings and stock-prices march in lockstep (they don't -- surprise!)

There are sections devoted to the various other players in the markets -- the Cassandras, the Doomsday best-sellers, New Era thinkers, eternally bearish newsletters, Fed Watchers, and the "Magazine Cover Jinx" phenomenon. I think Rothchild does a very fair job in evaluating all the above.

Rothchild comments at length on whether or not there is any truth to statements that the world's fortunes are linked as never before (something the investors kept hearing repeatedly until the Asian crisis in 199! 7, when "the tune changed").

Next, Rothchild goes on to suggestions on how to "bear proof the portfolio". He lists sectors that are expected to do better than the market when things turn bearish. He also examines the relative merits of cash, bonds, gold and stocks that pay dividends, and how they can be expected to fare when things get tough.

And coming out of a bear, where should one invest? There is an interesting chapter, titled, "Jumping On The Next Bull" that has some very useful advice on what to do in such a situation.

Rothchild also demolishes the myth that is harbored by many of today's investors that their mutual fund managers know how to bail them out. Most of them will fail to do so. However, Rothchild provides information on how mutual fund investors can improve their chances, in the chapter "Bear-friendly funds"

Finally, the book has interviews with three "survivors" from the Crash of '29 ! -- three nonagerians who are still actively managing money ! today!

On the downside, the author seems to overstate the bearish case. Whenever he refers to market indexes making highs and then getting back there after a downturn lasting several years, he uses the raw index numbers and doesn't take dividends into account, even though he doesn't forget to take inflation into consideration. Bear markets are scary enough that Rothchild needn't have made them look any scarier!

Also, some of the figures seem to be inaccurate -- the graphs and the explanations don't seem to agree with one another. And there are a few typos here and there.

All in all, this book is very useful as it helps investors get a glimpse of the darker side of the markets and deserves to be on the bookshelf of every investor.


Rating: 5 out of 5
The book shoots its target
Someone said that the book doesnt teach how to predict bear markets. I would rate it ridiculous if it aimed at that. No one can. (The market goes where it wants to go remember?)
Just like stop losses, shorts are a tool, learn how to use them.
This is not a pure technical book ,but it is probably one of the most enjoyable to read about this thing we all love: trading.
And if one recomendation is allowed on the technical side: Stock patterns for day trading and swing trading by Barry Rudd (No comissions here, lol)
Best regards

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