The Great Bust Ahead: The Greatest Depression in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away
Author: Daniel A. Arnold
List Price: $8.95
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ISBN: 159196153X
Publisher: Vorago US (25 November, 2002)
Sales Rank: 4,903
Average Customer Rating: 3.9 out of 5
Customer Reviews
Rating: 3 out of 5
The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
This book is a fascinating read and I recommend it. But I can't help but think the author is acting like Chicken Little. First off, the author does NOT have an Economics background. Having said this, many prominent economists would agree with his conclusion that a great economic downturn will occur around 2011 after a great boom. The crux of the author's argument is that the consumer spending of 45-54 year olds drive the economy. In fact, there is a strong correleation between the the number of 45-54 yr olds in the demographics and the Dow Jones. By 2011, as the number of 45-54 yr olds decline, so will the Dow Jones. The author fails, however, to point out the correlation between the Dow Jones and economic indicators such as unemployment, productivity, and GDP. This is a huge missing link to his argument. There are other factors which the author does not address, such as technological growth that is driving up the productivity. The fact that the Great Depression was caused by, not only the demographics, but wildly unregulated financial system is totally ommitted.
Rating: 5 out of 5
Best book on this subject I have ever read
After the many books of the last decade or so that incorrectly predicted depressions based on convoluted wave theories and other hard to swallow ideas, it was a breath of fresh air, albeit shocking, to read this book. It offers seemingly irrefutable arguments for a coming depression of massive proportions, based on very logical demographic principles. The real convincer for me was that it provided real proof for this prediction by showing how the same simple concepts have accounted for the detailed trend of the economy since 1920. A quite remarkable feat. Even the author seems at times to be quite shocked by the accuracy of his results. With concepts that almost effortlessly explained the trend of the economy for the best part of the last 100 years, I found it very easy to believe what the book predicts for our future. Anyone who wants to at least have a fighting financial chance in what is coming our way a few years from now ought to read this book, especially baby boomers.
Rating: 1 out of 5
Disappointing [short book]
The author basically has only one theory to discuss in this [short book], and once presented in the most simplistic of terms, he does not feel the need to discuss it further. His theory is that the DJIA can be predicted based on the numbers of 45-54 year olds - "big spenders" as he calls them. When the numbers of this age group goes down, so will the economy. The rest of the book describes in overly dramatic terms (complete with excessive exclamation points and bold print) just how bad the depression will be when the numbers of this age group declines. The author predicts the worst depression in history will occur sometime after 2010 (when the numbers of "big spenders" will decrease significantly.) Then he throws in a paragraph or two about what to do before the depression (invest in stocks) and just prior to the depression (sell your house by 2010 and invest in Treasury bonds.) That's it. Similar Products
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