But those speculations all beg the question: What should your company be doing today?
The New Silk Road is the first book I have read that reflects the views of my friends who have 20 plus years of experience doing business there. As such, it counters much of the overoptimism that makes American companies too anxious to expand there, and leads to mistakes that hurt short and long term results.
Any company that is considering its first stake in China, or re-evaluating the stakes it has today, should be sure that those involved read this book.
The key lessons are that company goals must be more carefully considered, partners chosen more thoughtfully, expectations of near-term profits lowered, a focus shifted to developing Chinese management and workers, and a longer-term perspective taken on developing and maintaining relationships. Perhaps the most fundamental point of the book is that things are very uncertain in China. With lots of effort you can reduce the uncertainty, but it will still be higher than in almost any other country. So there will be a premium placed on making decisions that will be good ones regardless of what happens in the Chinese business environment.
When you do your homework, you will find that China has more competition than almost any other country and lots of excess capacity. A small percentage of the people can afford to buy what you want to sell. Regulation and bureaucracy will keep you out of the best markets for what you want to do. The rules will change tomorrow. Everything will take a long time. Political tensions among your home nation and China will be used against you in business. Sounds challenging, doesn't it?
While China is underdeveloped economically and in entrepreneurial and business skills, the people are well educated and know a lot of things you do not. For one thing, they know the many different markets in China and how to do business there. They have local connections that you need. They also have skills in negotiation and strategy that you may not have. So seek out how to make the best of both worlds, rather than just plan to do business like you do in your home country. In fact, your product will probably have to be customized for the Chinese market.
Mr. Stuttard does an excellent job in his essay, "Reflections on China at the End of the Second Millennium," of summarizing the lessons from the case histories. Be sure to reread this essay after you finish the book. It will help put the case histories in perspective for you.
He has done well in choosing a variety of case histories, that reflect varying levels of success. The book is especially lucky to have the perspectives of comapnies with a great deal of Chinese experience like American International Group, John Swire, United Technologies, and Shell. In each case, either the company's CEO or the operating head in China is the person interviewed.
The people who run the business in China for you will be very vulnerable. When unpredictable shifts cause results to fall, their heads will be on the chopping block in some companies. That's not a good idea, because the set-backs will often not be due to any fault of their own.
You will also get helpful hints on the best ways to recruit talent, conduct training, and integrate expatriates.
After you have finished reading and enjoying this valuable book, I suggest that also consider where else the lessons of this book apply. I suspect that your success in many other parts of the world would be enhanced if you employed these lessons there, as well. Also, how else can you overcome communications stalls among your various operations and with your various stakeholders?
Focus on what needs to be done now to develop your short and long term potential!
Everyone featured in the book, including the author, is an "Old China Hand". Several of the companies are legacy firms, those with pre-WWII and pre-Mao histories who returned after the country turned face forward once again. Others are case study JV's with relatively short, 10-20 year pasts. Each chapter is compelling.
There is some flag waving for the Chinese. These are people who have listened to countless stories at countless banquets about the Chinese fear of chaos and the cultural scar tissue of 150 years (roughly 1790-1940) of shameless behavior by colonial minded Westerners in China. These stories are, after all, Inculcation 101 for any Westerner attempting even superficial commerce or business in the Middle Kingdom. Let's not forget the Chinese did a pretty good job of creating 25+ years of chaos themselves during the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution. The Japanese were several degrees beyond shameless during World War II. These events are much fresher in the Chinese consciousness than King George III, yet he and Emperor Qianlong still seem to dominate every conversation that explains and/or justifies Chinese desire to top down control all macro and micro aspects of their economy, firms and even routine business transactions.
Still, there is sage wisdom on every page. The book is best when the execs tell what they did in China to be successful. Some of the common themes are the need for good local managers and training programs, a corporate culture of equality with your Chinese partners regardless of equity division, the success of long term strategies versus short term. The deliberate love each exec feels for what they are doing and, in some ways, for China, is clear. The awesome change taking place in this country is also reflected in these interviews. A difference in attitude and tone can be seen between execs in consumer product industries versus sensitive and still restricted ones like oil.
Very little happens fast in China, except the neckbreaking pace at which Western funds are being spent to form infrastructure and modern physical assets. These are the people who have footed a noteworthy part of the bill. They have alot of value to say and this is a rare peak at thinking at their rung of the international corporate business ladder.
The New Silk Road is based on extensive interviews conducted by the author with business leaders who have many years of experience with the country. It features a series of lively narratives in which these experts share their insights into and observations of all the important aspects of doing business in China. These are important lessons they've learned about everything from making sense of, and marketing to, the patchwork of striking different regions that make up China, to building trust and negotiating with the Chinese.
This long-awaited insider's view of doing business in China informs you of the pitfalls and tells you what you need to know to succeed in the twenty-first century's great new business frontier.
John B. Stuttard is a Senior Partner in PricewaterhouseCoopers. From 1994 to 1999, he was Chairman and CEO of PricewaterhouseCoopers China, operating in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Dalian. In his 32-year career with PricewaterhouseCoopers, he has also worked with the UK Government's Cabinet Office think tank advising on privatisation, and for services to Finnish industry was made a Knight First Class of the Order of the Lion of Finland.
See also my review of: CHINA'S FUTURES Scenarios for the World's Fasting Growing Economy, Ecology, and Society James Ogilvy & Peter Schwartz with Joe Flower Jossey-Bass Publishers, 2000 ISBN 0-7879-5200-1