German psychologist Dietrick Dorner is a professor of cognitive behavior at the University of Bamberg and director of the Cognitive Anthropology Project at the Max Planck Institute in Berlin. He is also the inventor of computer simulations that expose the errors in decision making that arise in complex situations. The book The Logic of Failure describes some of this research.
One of the most interesting aspects of Dr. Dorner's work is that much of the behavior, good and bad, elicited from participants in the computer simulations is seen in real settings. Depending upon the situation described, I found myself realizing that my own responses might not have been optimal had I been a test subject. Also surprising was that no matter whether one had the best of intentions or simply took the situation as lightly as a game, the outcome could be disastrous. (As another author, A. G. Cairns-Smith, has written, "Sometimes enthusiastic incompetence is worse than sloth!") Whether the improvement of living conditions among the imaginary Moros of Tanaland in the Sahel of North Africa or in the quality of life of the citizens of the simulated suburb of Greenville, the outcome of the decisions made was obviously highly correlated with the capacity of the test subjects for managing simultaneous, multifaceted, and interconnected analysis of the situations. Some were capable of summing up the key points of the problem, forming plans, taking actions, and assessing outcomes while others simply spun their wheels in an effort to look like they're doing something. Another surprising, one might almost say frightening, point was the almost natural inability of most people to interpret exponential functions, like growth rates, and to misjudge the effectiveness of measures taken to alter the course of outcomes. Real problems like the spread of AIDS in a population were off by a substantial amount and the effectiveness of programs attempting to curb its spread were totally misjudged, leading to an unfounded optimism. This lack of basic understanding of what amounts to compound interest is probably why so many people end up critically in debt because of credit cards.
Given the complexity of life in modern society and the decision making expected of the average citizen, critical thinking like that which Dr. Dorner's computer simulations help develop should be encouraged as early as early grade school. While the work gives some basic concepts that will help the reader improve his own responses to complex decision making, more than anything Dorner's work suggests that society needs to be more tolerant of those who are in stressful positions that require decisions based on inadequate data. It also suggests that it might be best to place individuals who are more skilled at making plans and taking action under these circumstances into positions of authority. Certainly testing of this type might serve as a better means of selecting them.